Idea Surplus Disorder #108

In this week's Idea Surplus Disorder: Why your estimates are always wrong (and what to do about it), why to choose the more challenging path on purpose, and how to turn strategy presentations into actual conversations. Plus: a growing list of facilitation resources, a scientific scale for “partly cloudy,” and a few of Seth Godin’s notes-to-self.

You’ll also find advice for writing with AI without sounding like it, a favorite quote from E.B. White on writing up to children, and some sobering stats on the death of the American party.

And as always, you’ll find a mix of fun finds, practical insights, and thought-provoking quotes to help you lead, live, and think more intentionally.

I'm Matt Homann, and I'm glad you're here.

Ideas + Insights

It is hard to encapsulate this idea in just one quote, but when we estimate something, the larger unit we use (miles vs. feet), the smaller and less accurate the estimate becomes.

Speaking of estimates, here’s a way to temper your “planning optimism” if you’re constantly underestimating the time it will take you (or your team) to complete a task:

[W]hen you’re estimating the amount of time a task is going to take, balance your brain’s natural optimism by imagining a scenario where things don’t go entirely your way. Then plan for something close to that. The fallacy exerts such a strong pull on our brains that this will probably leave you with an estimate that’s fairly accurate. (And imagine how great you’ll feel if you finish it sooner.)

More planning advice from Naval Ravikant:

If you have two choices to make, and they’re relatively equal choices, take the path more difficult and more painful in the short term. What’s actually going on is one of these paths requires short-term pain. And the other path leads to pain further out in the future. And what your brain is doing through conflict-avoidance is trying to push off the short-term pain.

Here's how Proctor & Gamble’s retired CEO A.G. Lafley approached annual strategy reviews with his teams (from the book The Design of Business):

Presidents would submit their slide decks two weeks before the strategy review. Lafley would read the materials and issue a short list of questions that he wanted to discuss at the meeting. He emphasized that he wanted a discussion, not a presentation. Presidents were allowed to bring only three more pieces of paper — charts, graphs, notes — to the review.

Chris Corrigan continues to expand his impressive list of facilitation resources:

The first section provides links to participatory group processes that are inclusive and self-organizing to varying degrees. The process architecture and maps section contains links to sites whose worldviews can inform process design, from single meetings to large-scale change. The following three sections cover more specific tools useful for particular purposes, and finally, the last section contains links to sources of ongoing inspiration.

Doing good deeds for selfish reasons is better than doing them at all.

There's a scientific way to measure"partly cloudy":

The sky is visually inspected to produce an estimate of the number of eighths of the dome of the sky covered by cloud. A completely clear sky is recorded as zero okta, while a totally overcast sky is 8 oktas. The presence of any trace of cloud in an otherwise blue sky is recorded as 1 okta, and similarly any trace of blue on an otherwise cloudy sky is recorded as 7 oktas.

Seth Godin shared a bunch of notes to himself. These are my favorites:

#11. Everyone who disagrees with you believes they are correct.

#17. Uncomfortable facts are often the most helpful ones.

#35. Perfectionism is not related to quality.

#43. Create tension and relieve stress.

#54. Today’s world is unpredictable, and this is as stable as it will ever be again.

If you don't want your AI-enabled writing to sound like you wrote with an AI, this prompt can help.

I love this advice from E.B. White (Charlote's Web) on writing for children:

Anyone who writes down to children is simply wasting their time. You have to write up, not down. Children are demanding. They are the most attentive, curious, eager, observant, sensitive, quick, and generally congenial readers on earth. They accept, almost without question, anything you present them with, as long as it is presented honestly, fearlessly, and clearly.

Americans don't party anymore:

Between 2003 and 2024, the amount of time that Americans spent attending or hosting a social event declined by 50 percent. Almost every age group cut their party time in half in the last two decades. For young people, the decline was even worse. Last year, Americans aged 15-to-24 spent 70 percent less time attending or hosting parties than they did in 2003.

We’ve built ourselves a world of greater professional ambition, more intensive parenting, and lavish entertainment abundance. But in making this world, we’ve lost a bit of each other. If summoning these magnificent technologies incurs the death of our social lives, a permanent surge of anxiety, and the long-term demise of deep friendships, then we’ll have built ourselves a glittering dungeon of insularity and called it progress. Surely, we can do better than that.

Fun Finds

• A history of playing cards
• Bullshit Remover. Seriously.
• Mac Menu Settings through history
• Japanese Playgrounds at Night
• The History of English in 22 minutes

Words of Wisdom

The patient inherit everything the impatient leave behind. — Shane Parish

Things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could. — Rudiger Dornbusch

If I don't practice one day, I know it; two days, the critics know it; three days, the public knows it. – Jascha Heifetz

I wouldn’t have seen it, if I didn’t believe it. — Marshall McLuhan

You have to be unreasonable to see the world that doesn’t yet exist. — Will Guidara

Everyone believes very easily whatever they fear or desire.
​— Jean de La Fontaine

Up Next From Filament

Every month, Filament delivers an incredible mix of free programming and professional development. You can find links to sign up for all of our upcoming events, including PlayDays, EmpowerHer, NSFW, and SuperCollider here.

Now Reading

If you've made it this far, here's what I'm enjoying right now:

• The Four Conversations by Blair Enns: One of the best "sales" books I've read in a long time. Worth it just for the examples of language you can use with prospects on the sales journey.
• Alchemy by Rory Sutherland: A deep dive into counterintuitive thinking from one of the best advertising minds in the last fifty years.
• A Story is a Deal by Will Storr: I've just started this one on the science of storytelling, but am liking it so far.